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US move and its impact on the Baloch national struggle

A discussion paper by Miran Baloch

Introduction

The US House Committee on Foreign Affairs convened an extraordinary congressional hearing on February 8, 2012, to discuss the alarming human rights situation in Balochistan. Comprised of Republican and Democratic members, the committee expressed grave concerns over the appalling human rights violations in Balochistan, asserted the need to not overlook, but rather respect Baloch human rights and to endorse the Baloch national right to self-determination currently violated and usurped by Pakistan and Iran. Congressman Dana Rohrabacher who chaired this hearing, in one of his further moves, tabled a resolution in the US House of Representatives calling for the recognition of the Baloch people's national right to self-determination. This event has been discussed widely in circles involved in the Baloch-Pakistan conflict and in those quarters which are interested in the region's political future, taking into account the geo-strategic importance of Balochistan. For Baloch political activists, it is important to analyse this event in context and to examine its impacts on Pakistan and the Baloch national struggle in order to adopt strategies which could help achieve the objectives of the Baloch national struggle.

The congressional move in context

Balochistan is part of a strategically important energy and natural resource rich region. It is also located in the middle of a region where religious fundamentalism and support for international terrorism is gaining ground. The international community led by the US, looks to defend its national interests, access to energy and other natural resources and to control maritime trade routes in the region. Pakistan, as the breeding ground for terrorism and fundamentalism, has been the focus of international forces for the last many decades.

Historically, the relationship between Pakistan and the US has been characterized by on-off collaborations since its formation, each of which has involved both sides overlooking the degree to which their interests and policies coincide. When the British folded their imperial tents in the region, the US started to increasingly take interest in the region, formed a military alliance with Pakistan to contain communism and exercise its influence in regional politics via Pakistan.

Pakistan was a key partner in the US struggle against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s when the US amply supported the Pakistan military, overlooking Gen. Zia's policies of "˜Islamisation' that now deeply infiltrate the military elite, and which have had long-lasting and harmful effects on not only Pakistan and Afghanistan, but the whole world including the US.

Taking advantage of US-led western support, Pakistan actively pursued the programme of acquiring nuclear weapons and formed very close ties with China to challenge the US stake in the Middle East and South Asia. It manufactured and recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. In May 1998, Pakistan tested five nuclear devices in Balochistan, setting off alarm bells throughout the Western world. Following the tests, the US imposed sanctions, restricting all military sales, economic assistance and loans to the Pakistani government.

When the US was shaken by the terrorist attacks of 9/11 that were believed to be planned by Osama Bin Laden who was sheltered by a Pakistani-backed Taliban government, the US initiated its "˜war against terror' that required the overthrow of Taliban government in Afghanistan and purification of the region of religious terrorism.

Pakistan, under tremendous pressure, agreed to join the war on terrorism. It agreed to support peace and security in Afghanistan, curbing Pakistani support for the terrorists, and obeying nuclear non-proliferation rules. In return, the US waived various sanctions and has since provided substantial amounts of economic assistance, debt relief and security aid. Close military and intelligence ties were established between Pakistan and the US, making Pakistan one of the most important allies in the war on terror.

The US objective to develop and maintain a positive relationship was to help transform Pakistan from a religious fanatic to a more tolerant, liberal, modern, and dynamic country, by promoting education, democracy and social development that would help root out terrorism, reduce the nuclear risk, promote regional stability and minimize anti-US sentiments that pose formidable obstacles in achieving the US goals.

These measures, however, did not deter the Pakistani army establishment, which is the actual ruler of the country, from its misguided policies on terrorism and nuclear proliferation. It continued its involvement in nuclear proliferation with Libya, North Korea and Iran, as well as sheltered the remnants of Taliban terrorists that fled from Afghanistan to Pakistan. Pakistan uses them as a "˜strategic weapon' and manipulates them to harm Western troops and government installations in Afghanistan. This increasing duplicity strained the ties between the US and Pakistan.

Pakistan represents one of the most complex challenges that the US faces anywhere in the world. The ISI's very close ties with Islamist extremists has not only jeopardized US stakes in a stable and peaceful Afghanistan but has helped fuel global terrorism, which will have an enormously harmful impact on the entire region. Pakistan advanced the spread of radicalization within the society. It became an incubator for the Taliban and other terrorist outfits operating worldwide. The army became heavily engaged in spreading Jihadi doctrine among its soldiers and through its controlled media, society, in general, was filled with a hatred for the alleged enemies of Islam (the US, India, Israel and the West).

Despite being aware of the situation that Pakistan was getting aid as a partner in the struggle against terrorism on the one hand and harboring fundamentalist and international terrorists and waging a proxy war against NATO forces in Afghanistan on the other hand, the US continued to pump billions of dollars into the coffers of the Army establishment in Pakistan. It was not until May of last year, after Osama Bin Laden was discovered as being protected by the Pakistan army in Abbotabad, that US legislators began urging an end to economic assistance to Pakistan, a country seen as increasingly untrustworthy. In order to increase the pressure on Pakistan, the US government delayed military aid to Pakistan. Politicians and policy makers in the US began to speak of more stringent actions against Pakistan after realizing that Pakistan is a troubled and possibly failing state, exporting fanatic religious terrorism, and one that has no will, appropriate means and potential to become a responsible and influential global stakeholder.

Impact on Pakistan

The policy shift in the US which appears to be a real one, has consequences of various natures. Pakistan is home to multiple internal and external crises at present that drive the relations between the country's civil and military elite and create much tension regarding the running of the country. The recent US move has stunned Pakistan and triggered a great debate in the country. The civil elite comprised of "˜Panjabi nationalists', openly blame the military for the crisis facing Pakistan, claiming the US move to be the outcome of longstanding military policies towards Balochistan and Afghanistan. The Pakistan military, bruised by different failures including the assassination of Osama Bin Laden under the nose of the military and the revelation of its duplicity in the war on terror, has had its reputation gravely damaged amongst the Pakistanis and the international community. Exploiting these developments, Punjabi nationalists, with the help of liberals and civil society, can exert tremendous pressure on the military establishment to relinquish power, so that the situation in Balochistan can be defused and increasingly spreading Sindhi nationalist aspirations can be curbed.

The military, on the other hand, unceasingly claims itself to be the spiritual (Pakistani Islamic Ideology) and physical guardian of Pakistan, dominating policymaking and control over the country's energy and resources. It has so far relied on the use of force and duplicity to contain any political dissent, be it within or outside its borders. It continues to manipulate its first line of defense (extremist religious parties) to legitimize its supremacy and undermine the stance of its mainstream political opponents in Pakistan. It also provides shelter and guides its proliferating anti-US religious armed groups/Taliban to harm the Western forces in Afghanistan and to disrupt the reconstruction process and draw the US out of Afghanistan, intending to transform Afghanistan into a client state to provide strategic depth against India.

Looking into the chequered history of the Pakistan army, the army can respond to the US move in two possible ways: It may succumb to pressure from the international community and US actions and internal political mobilization of Punjabi nationalists and give way to a genuine democratic dispensation. Or, it will ruthlessly retaliate to safeguard its institutional interests and the personal interests of its officers' core.

The US notice and verification of human rights violations in Balochistan have damaged the morale of the Pakistan army, as human rights organizations are increasingly reminding the Pakistan Army that it cannot get away with the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being perpetrated in Balochistan. The military officers might fear indictment by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and International Military Tribunal (IMT) for war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide, and aggression in Balochistan. The examples of Libya and Romania, former Yugoslavia, Sudan and Liberia are stark reminders that in today's world it is not hard to bring to the justice high profile criminals.

The Pakistan army in an extraordinary act of far-sightedness might agree to a political settlement of the Baloch question. End human rights violations in Balochistan and resurface the forcefully disappeared Baloch persons, and thus offer a way forward to Pakistani civilian elites to engage Baloch leaders in serious political negotiations to reach a political settlement (Peace Treaty) of the Baloch issue in the presence of a third party considering the "historical context of the Baloch national question". For many observers of Pakistani history, taking into consideration the mindset and historical context of the military rule in Pakistan, it is very unlikely that the army would agree to relinquish power. Alternatively, the army might intensify the amount of brutal force against the Baloch people that will add to the misery of the Baloch and further alarm the international community and human rights organizations.

Regarding non-compliance with the demands of the US and international community, the repercussions for Pakistan will be drastic. It can safely be predicted that the Pakistani state will eventually face the terminal crisis of its existence. Pakistan was created and sustained by the moral, political, ideological, and economic assistance of Western powers. It was sustained in order to serve the interests of Western powers against the growing menace of socialism after World War II. With the absence of its purpose for existence, the moral and political justifications for Pakistan will be no more there. With the stoppage of economic assistance from the West, Pakistan will not be able to feed its huge population which is growing alarmingly. Stoppage of military assistance will weaken the morale of army officers and their will to keep the integrity of the state a priority. With an impoverished and underdeveloped society, riddled with decades of chronic internal political instability, deteriorating institutions, and low levels of foreign investment, Pakistan will soon be engulfed in chaotic and anarchic situations. It will be a miracle if the Pakistani state emerges from such an existential crisis in one piece.

Decision time for the Baloch

For many observers of the situation, the move on Balochistan is merely a pressure tactic in order to force Pakistan to stop aiding the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. However, for many others, it is the beginning of a significant shift in US policy towards Pakistan. It is believed that the US with its highest priority being to prevent the further spread of nuclear weapons, stabilizing Afghanistan, and dismantling the terrorist networks, is adopting a new approach with the ultimate goal being the disintegration of Pakistan and, in the process, carving out an Independent Balochistan. It is believed that a secular Balochistan in the centre of the highly religious extremist states of the region will be a ready-to-use tool to contain terrorism. It can also be used to safeguard other strategic interests of the US, including the important continued energy supply from the Gulf without any disturbance from terrorist or Islamic fundamentalists.

After decades of negligence of the Baloch national question by the West, it is a god-given opportunity for the Baloch to grasp the reality of the situation and gain maximum advantage from the apparent policy changes in Western capitals towards Pakistan. Irrespective of the outcome of the congressional hearing and the subsequent resolution in the US House of Representatives regarding the right of self-determination of the Baloch, the Baloch issue has been brought into the international spotlight. To use this "˜opportune moment' in favour of the Baloch cause for national salvation requires the Baloch leadership and political parties to sincerely and wisely reflect on their practices and do a "˜self evaluation' to not only realise their weaknesses and strengths but to formulate proper strategies.

The time and circumstances demand robust and visionary leadership with proper planning and strategy adoption. The state of affairs in the Baloch national struggle is not satisfactory. The struggle is being waged in small and isolated pockets without a central leadership or coordinating apparatus. The backbone of the armed resistance which is comprised of Marri, Mengal and Bugti tribes appears to lack coordination. The section of the armed resistance which was middle class-led became virtually ineffective because of irresponsible and childish behaviour of their political cadre and leadership which caused the annihilation of a whole cadre of dedicated activists. Due to the absence of the leadership and elimination of its hardcore cadre by the security agencies, the political forces of the Baloch national struggle failed to lead the nation in a meaningful political mobilization of the masses.

Sadly, at a time when the world speaks for the right of self-determination of the Baloch, Baloch leaders and political parties failed to meet expectations. The Baloch leadership has failed to unite in the larger interests of the nation. It has failed to devise any strategy for the safety of their hardcore political activists. It has failed to bring the armed struggle under political control and it has failed to channel the emotions of the people or to transform their mourning into strength for the movement. Overall they failed to chalk out a long-term feasible and workable political programme for a national liberation struggle. By failing to forge unity among themselves and by indulging themselves in practices that are undermining the national struggle they jointly own, the Baloch leadership is depicting their little know-how of regional and international politics. Increasingly their credibility is being questioned regarding their ability to run and guide a complex national liberation struggle. The diminishing credibility of the leadership will mean irreversible damage to the morale of Baloch nationalist forces and will cast dark shadows on the Baloch national resistance movement.

It is high time for the Baloch leadership to face the challenge in a responsible way. The leadership can form strong internal contacts with each other to bridge the communication gap that exists between them and initiate trust building; it will help the broader Baloch nation come closer and keep morale high. It will also leave less room for the stooges who want to fuel internal divisions. An internal monitoring cell should be formed by mutual consensus to help avoid any conspiratorial breaks of their communication or traps that lead to harmful practices. They should also start looking for an appropriate means, through the formation of small political groups or the wise use of media, to build a communication channel between them and the public to keep nurturing their consciousness. With such unity they will be able to efficiently utilize their available resources and abilities.

Internationally, Baloch leadership should understand that they won't be entertained or heard until and unless they enjoy the mandate of the Baloch cause and that mandate depends on their establishing a 'united political front' backed by a political programme.

The political programme can focus on two major areas: socio-political and diplomatic. With regards to socio-politics, the prime responsibility of the leaders is to coordinate the formation of political and human rights organisations abroad along contemporary lines, to organise the Baloch Diaspora. These organisations can occasionally hold seminars, meetings with civil society, conferences and processions to educate the international community about the Baloch national struggle and the human rights situation in Balochistan. The highlighting of the Baloch national question can exert influential pressure on Pakistan to put an end to the human rights abuses being perpetrated by the Pakistani military in Balochistan. The Baloch Diaspora can play a very positive role in urging the international community to bring the Pakistani military and intelligence leaders who have been involved in human rights violations in Balochistan and sponsoring terrorist attacks in other parts of the world to face justice in international courts. The struggling nation must keep on struggling steadily to make the fulfillment of their demands an unavoidable part of the larger interests of the world powers, by ensuring their demands are consistent with the geopolitical and strategic interests of the western powers.

On the diplomatic level, the leadership can direct mature and literate Baloch political delegations to meet with potent and influential global stakeholders to win their moral support and gain financial help. Highlighting the secular nature of Baloch who have a geopolitically significant territory with energy and natural wealth pool can stimulate the interests of the regional and international powers which can be channeled in favour of the Baloch national struggle.

An important measure could be the formation of a strong Baloch and Sindhi alliance that will have its large beneficial impact on both the Baloch and Sindhi national struggles.

Another important aspect of the Baloch national resistance should be given top priority. A struggling nation must not defy what it fights for when it comes to the human rights; we should respect human rights for everyone, in the way we want ours to be respected. The "˜International humanitarian law' under the pretext of "˜The Hague Conventions 1899 and 1907' and "˜The Geneva Conventions,' and the "˜law of International armed conflict' prohibits the execution or targeting of civilians, denial of which would be considered violating the respective laws. The Baloch armed resistance has been blamed for attacks against the non-Baloch civilians and the kidnapping of John Solecki and threatening the staff of International Committee of Red Cross in Quetta. These acts and other childish behaviors will have adverse moral impact on the Baloch national struggle internally and internationally. The Baloch leaders must ensure they bring the Baloch armed resistance under strict political control and use it as per the political necessities of the time.

Conclusion

The US move comes at a time when the social injustices, human rights abuses, economic desolation, cultural and political oppression of the Baloch at the hands of the Pakistani establishment since the "˜illegal and forceful occupation' of Balochistan in 1948 has intensified to a dreadful level. Pakistan has unceasingly refused to concede any legitimacy to Baloch nationalism or to engage the Baloch nationalists in serious political negotiations, instead branding them as criminals and their struggle for national rights as a proxy aggression of India, Israel and the US, overlooking the historical context of the Baloch national question. It has strictly treated the systematic elimination of the Baloch as an internal matter of the country by imposing a total blackout of news from Balochistan intended to keep the world in the dark about the situation in Balochistan. The brutal suppression of the Baloch aspiration for national liberation continues unabated in the absence of any international intervention and involvement of the UN and other world organisations to attempt to keep the peace and remove the fear and horrors suffered by the Baloch.

It is obvious that the West led by the US is seriously thinking of a shift in the policy towards Pakistan. US intervention in the Baloch issue is a light at the end of a dark tunnel. It has boosted the morale of the Baloch people who believe their sacrifices have not gone unnoticed and they see their legitimate national struggle for the right of self-determination to have gained international recognition after being discussed in one of world's most powerful forums.

The US interest in the Baloch national question will affect Pakistan very negatively and it may face a real crisis of existence in the near future.

Despite the heroic struggle of the Baloch masses for the last many years, the state of affairs in the Baloch national resistance is not satisfactory due mainly to the lack of clear policies and strategies from the Baloch leadership.

Approval of the tabled resolution calling for the right of self-determination of the Baloch will win international legitimacy for the Baloch national struggle. If the leadership properly exploits this opportunity by forging unity, formulating feasible political strategies and mounting an international diplomatic initiative, the prospects for the Baloch national resistance might be brighter in the near future.

Miran Baloch is a student of political, social and behavioral sciences.

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