The New York Post | Oct. 17, 2010 | Original story

Report on 'Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power' By Robert D. Kaplan

The world's "busiest and most important interstate," journalist Robert D. Kaplan says, is the Indian Ocean, with 50% of all container traffic and 70% of all petroleum traffic traversing its waters. It is this region "” with China and India jockeying for dominance, the United States trying to maintain its influence and unstable regimes threatening the flow of resources "” that will be the setting for most of the global conflicts in the coming decades.

In his new book, "Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power" (Random House), Kaplan notes that US leaders already realize this, with the Navy suggesting that it will not have a forward operating presence in the Atlantic, shifting to this area instead. But the battle for the Indian Ocean will not be like the conflicts of the past. China, for instance, will not be a straightforward foe like the Soviet Union.

"The real lesson here is the subtlety of the world we're entering, of which the Indian Ocean provides a salient demonstration," Kaplan says. "Instead of the hardened military bases of the Cold War and earlier epochs, there will be dual-use civilian-military facilities where basing arrangements will be implicit rather than explicit." Here, Kaplan runs down the region, including the little-known city that could loom large:

Gwadar

At the intersection of empires, the port city of Gwadar "could become the new silk route nexus," Kaplan says, but that's all tied to Pakistan's struggle against becoming a failed state. The Middle Eastern nation of Oman held Gwadar until 1958, when it was ceded to the newly formed Pakistan. Russia coveted it as a port during its long war in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, two local ethnic groups, the Baluch and the Sindhi, battle for their own independent nations. Now the Chinese are funding a sophisticated, deepwater port in Gwadar. China also is constructing the Karakoram Highway, which connects the city to China through Pakistan. "Come back in a decade and this place will look like Dubai," a developer says. Or it could explode in ethnic violence, Kaplan says. "Gwadar is the litmus test; it is an indication of the stability of the whole Arabian Sea region."

Afghanistan

Pipelines from Turkemenistan and other countries need to pass through Afghanistan to carry natural gas and oil to the coast. "Stabilizing Afghanistan is about much more than just the anti-terrorist war," Kaplan says. "It is about securing the future prosperity of the whole of southern Eurasia, as well as easing India and Pakistan towards peaceful coexistence through the sharing of energy routes."

China

By 2015, China will be the world's most prolific shipbuilder, and Shanghai already is the world's busiest port. Like the US, China sees itself as a benign power. It does not look to occupy other nations (besides Taiwan), but wants to protect its interests and extend its influence. Kaplan believe we will both "compete and cooperate" with them.

Taiwan

"An unsinkable aircraft carrier," Gen. Douglas MacArthur called it. Kaplan likens China's quest for the island to the Indian wars in the US; once they were resolved, America could look abroad. If China can consolidate Taiwan, "it would be the real emergence of a multipolar world."

India

Soon to be fourth-largest energy consumer after the US, China and Japan, India will remain non-aligned, Kaplan says, but leaning more toward the US. Its answer to the Chinese port at Gwadar was an $8 billion naval base at Karwar. It will hold 42 ships, including submarines.

US fleet

At end of WWII, US had 6,700 ships; Cold War, 600. It's now fewer than 280. Though the US Navy still has no equal, the way the carrier Abraham Lincoln responded to the tsunami "” providing assistance and projecting American goodwill and power "” sparked a lot of discussion in China about whether to acquire or build its own aircraft carriers.

Burma

A churning mini-empire of nationalities, with an abundance of oil, natural gas and minerals, ruled by a despotic regime. "It is a prize to be fought over, as China and India are not so subtly doing," Kaplan writes. As with North Korea, Beijing does not particularly like the ruler "” Gen. Than Shwe "” but supports him anyway for access to the Indian Ocean and natural resources.

"Malacca dilemma"

The Strait of Malacca, the narrow corridor for trade to the Middle East and Africa, hosts 50% of the world's merchant fleet capacity; 85% of the oil China imports passes through it. It's rife with piracy. For now, the US and other nations patrol the area, but China is taking a greater role in keeping the peace.

Thailand

To bypass Malacca, there's speculation that China will help finance a new, $20 billion canal in the Isthmus of Kra to provide a faster link to the Indian Ocean. It could be as important to them as the Panama Canal was to us.